Each Nvidia and AMD are anticipated to launch new graphics playing cards inside the subsequent few months. It’s no secret as to which of the 2 lineups has the next likelihood of topping the charts with probably the greatest GPUs.
AMD is alleged to be sitting out of the high-end race this technology, and though this could possibly be the appropriate strategy for AMD, it’s really actually dangerous information for Nvidia followers. As a gamer, letting Nvidia monopolize the buyer GPU sphere is the very last thing that I want for.
A not-so-heated rivalry
Jacob Roach / Digital Traits
The indicators of a wholesome GPU market embody loads of inventory, no shortages, affordable costs, and some extent of rivalry between the 2 — properly, three, should you rely Intel — opponents.
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Sadly, I’ve to say that the GPU market is certainly liable to slipping into “unhealthy” territory, and that’s not due to any chip shortages. It’s extra that the rivalry between AMD and Nvidia has cooled down, and issues are unlikely to get any higher going ahead.
A few of it could be simply that we haven’t had any new GPU releases for some time, and it was Nvidia that got here out with three new graphics playing cards in the beginning of the yr. The RTX 40 Tremendous refresh was a success throughout, with a less expensive RTX 4080 Tremendous and two strong choices within the type of the RTX 4070 Ti Tremendous and the RTX 4070 Tremendous.
In the meantime, AMD’s had two GPUs come out this yr. Considered one of them, the RX 7600 XT, barely moved the needle when in comparison with its non-XT counterpart; the XT card is just round 6% sooner, however even months after the discharge, it nonetheless prices round $50 to $60 extra. These numbers simply don’t add up. There’s additionally the RX 7900 GRE, which was a mighty present of stability between value and efficiency — let’s have extra of that in RDNA 4, please.
With a quietish GPU market, it’s no surprise that issues are beginning to really feel a bit stale. What’s extra, regardless that each producers had been initially stated to launch next-gen GPUs this yr, it’s extremely unlikely to occur at this level.
Jacob Roach / Digital Traits
Even nonetheless, though each Nvidia and AMD haven’t launched any next-gen GPUs this yr, it’s Nvidia that’s slowly chipping away at AMD’s market share. The newest information reveals that within the second quarter of 2023, AMD held a 17% add-in board (AIB, or discrete GPU) market share. A yr later, within the second quarter of 2024, it’s all the way down to 12%. Intel’s had it tough, too. It had a measly 2% graphics card market share one yr in the past, however now, it’s all the way down to 0%.
There’s extra. Earlier this yr, AMD revealed that its general gaming income within the first quarter of 2024 was down by 48% year-over-year. AMD solely anticipated issues to worsen within the second half of 2024.
This leaves Nvidia sitting fairly with 88% of the GPU market in its arms.
A sound, however disappointing determination
Jacob Roach / Digital Traits
For a lot of months now, numerous leakers have all been in settlement with regards to one factor: Making a high-end RDNA 4 graphics card just isn’t a precedence for AMD, and it’s not going to occur. If there ever was such a GPU (and plenty of have stated that it existed), it’s been canceled.
The present expectation is that AMD’s flagship will probably be near the RX 7900 XT in rasterization, nevertheless it’ll surpass it in ray tracing. That’s not a lot of an enchancment, and the sort of efficiency will most likely make the flagship RX 8000 sequence card a rival for Nvidia’s RTX 5070 Ti at finest. Thoughts you, I’m merely speculating primarily based on leaks — AMD hasn’t disclosed its plans for RDNA 4 simply but. It might nonetheless shock us all.
It’s not simply that AMD isn’t aiming excessive with its next-gen playing cards, but additionally that it may be falling behind in adopting the most recent reminiscence tech. Whereas Nvidia is alleged to modify to GDDR7 reminiscence within the RTX 50-series — maybe together with the most recent 24Gb modules — AMD is alleged to be sticking to GDDR6. AMD by no means adopted GDDR6X within the first place, which Nvidia has been utilizing on this complete present gen of playing cards, and AMD may nonetheless not make the change in RDNA 4.
However, AMD does have the higher hand in a few methods. Its GPUs typically have greater reminiscence capability than their Nvidia equivalents, and Infinity Cache helps offset the decrease bandwidth. AMD has additionally already adopted the DisplayPort 2.1 connector, which Nvidia will solely embody within the RTX 50-series. However nonetheless, if Nvidia makes use of GDDR7 reminiscence throughout its whole lineup, there’s certain to be a big distinction in bandwidth between comparable playing cards.
All the above leaks level to a mainstream card. Nvidia might stay unmatched on the excessive finish, and in all probability, the perfect we will hope to see is an AMD flagship that may beat the RTX 4080 Tremendous.
Jacob Roach / Digital Traits
I’m no market analyst, however even I do know that that is most probably a sound determination. As I’ve stated earlier than, there’s quite a lot of benefit in aiming for the mainstream market. In any case, most of us gained’t be shopping for the likes of the RTX 5090. There’s a purpose why Nvidia’s xx60 playing cards high the Steam {Hardware} Survey month after month: Mainstream GPUs are extra reasonably priced and adequate for the overwhelming majority of players. And if AMD is aware of that it might probably’t beat the RTX 5090, it is sensible for it to stay to acquainted waters and goal the market that’s extra open to its graphics playing cards.
Sensible as it could be, this determination is worrying, and I don’t simply imply for AMD fans. In actual fact, Nvidia followers may undergo from this lack of competitors greater than those that purchase AMD GPUs.
A $2,500 GPU?
Jacob Roach / Digital Traits
Lately, we’ve talked a couple of worrying leak that reportedly comes from certainly one of Nvidia’s companions. It needed to do with the attainable pricing for the RTX 50-series, and I’m not going to lie: It was decidedly not excellent news. Moore’s Regulation Is Useless cited an nameless supply when reporting that Nvidia may cost between $2,000 and $2,500 for an RTX 5090. This is able to be adopted by a $1,200 to $1,500 RTX 5080, and a $600 to $700 RTX 5070.
That is what I imply by “letting Nvidia run rampant.” With no competitors from AMD, Nvidia has much less of an incentive to attempt to preserve its costs affordable, and this might lead to this sort of loopy pricing throughout your complete stack.
What’s worse is that these sorts of inflated costs would have an effect on not simply those that need to purchase an RTX 5090. A $1,200 to $1,500 RTX 5080 is fairly outrageous, particularly should you take into account that Nvidia really lowered the pricing of the RTX 4080 from $1,200 to $1,000 when it rereleased it as a barely tweaked Tremendous model. And $700 for an RTX 5070? That’s $100 greater than the RTX 4070 at launch; to not point out that nowadays, you’ll discover it for as little as $530.
Thankfully, I’ve to say {that a} $2,500 RTX 5090 appears just about inconceivable. (Let’s hope I don’t eat my phrases in just a few months time.) That’s the identical worth because the RTX Titan, and no person beloved how costly that card was. Even the RTX 3090 Ti, which was outrageously expensive, was “solely” $2,000. The RTX 5090 could also be a step up, however that type of pricing ought to nonetheless be reserved for one thing much more highly effective; maybe the RTX 5090 Ti, if that ever occurs.
I don’t assume {that a} $2,500 RTX 5090 will change into a actuality. However there’d be even much less of an opportunity of it taking place if AMD was there, with a card match to compete towards at the least the 5080 at a way more affordable worth level. I’m speaking one thing like what the RX 7900 XTX might’ve been if AMD priced it decrease from the get-go.
As issues stand now, Nvidia is raking in all of the market recognition, too. The variety of RTX 50-series leaks is rising by the day, however there’s not been a lot about RDNA 4. Maybe AMD is conserving data nearer to the vest, however that doesn’t assist in constructing anticipation for a technology that may really feel underwhelming in a world the place everyone seems to be hyperfocused on efficiency beneficial properties.
Too early to panic
Jacob Roach / Digital Traits
Though I want AMD had extra of a presence within the GPU market, it’s undoubtedly not but the time to panic.
We’ve seen AMD claw its approach up from close to obscurity within the CPU market. Now, it’s a formidable competitor to Intel, with its X3D processors being extensively touted because the gaming CPUs to purchase. In actual fact, each the 5800X3D and the 7800X3D are just about offered out proper now, and everybody’s holding their breath in anticipation of the upcoming 9800X3D. Intel’s Arrow Lake might battle to generate that type of hype.
AMD has performed it earlier than, and it might probably do it once more if it needs to. It could by no means change into a market chief within the GPU sphere, nevertheless it provides players an essential different with strong GPUs that usually have a tendency to supply higher efficiency per greenback than Nvidia’s.
Nvidia’s RTX 50-series pricing might get fairly loopy — that’s sadly true. Nonetheless, most sources agree that $2,500 for the RTX 5090 is very unlikely to occur. However $2,000? Yeah, I might see that occuring. That’s nonetheless lots, and it’s certain to push the costs of the remainder of the lineup greater than they need to be, too. I want AMD might assist stop that from taking place.
The reality is, Nvidia can push the costs greater if it needs to. Regardless of being costly, the RTX 4090 stayed above the $1,600 really useful checklist worth (MSRP) ever because it launched. If something, the value has solely gone up. With a constant demand and folks prepared to pay above market worth, I’ve a tough time holding out hope that Nvidia may preserve its flagship round that $1,600 ballpark. I’ve resigned myself to that $1,800 to $2,000 determine, though I hope I’m unsuitable.
Stress from AMD actually would’ve helped. To remain wholesome, the GPU market wants extra than simply Nvidia. I’m fearful that we’ll see the complete impression of Nvidia’s monopoly on the high-end graphics card market within the upcoming RTX 50-series. We’ll seemingly discover out extra throughout CES 2025 in January.
